Beata Stanisławczyk

Abstract The work detailed here concerns an analysis of characteristic (i.e. Wq maximum, Sq – mean and Nq – minimum) specific runoff from selected river catchments in Poland as set against the recorded intensity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as quantified using Hurrell’s NAO index. Analysis was based around daily river discharges at water–gauges located along 40 rivers in numerous different regions of Poland (Fig. 2), and deemed to be representative of various kinds of hydrological regime. The data spanned the 1951-2010 period, though time series for particular river catchments were in fact in the 48- to 60-year range. The data in question were made subject to calculations of coefficients for the correlation between simultaneous series describing characteristic specific river runoffs and values of Hurrell’s NAO index. However, assessment also accounted for inertia of specific river runoff, by using cross-correlation coefficients, and most especially the relationship between studied specific river runoff and values for the NAO index recorded in the preceding year. The statistical significances of correlation and cross–correlation coefficient values were assessed using the Student t test ( = 0.05). The correlation between values for the Hurrell index and weighted average specific runoff from Poland was also analysed. A key research finding was that the largest number of statistically-significant correlation coefficients (19 and 14 respectively) were obtained when Hurrell’s NAO index was set against maximum or mean specific river runoffs (Fig. 4). In contrast, the NAO is shown to have a rather minor impact on minimum specific river runoff in Poland (with significance achieved for data from just 3 catchments). Asynchronicity to the relationship between the NAO and characteristic runoff in Poland was also observed, though it needs stressing that the NAO primarily influences specific river runoff in southern Poland, with only a more minor influence on runoff in the lowland and lakeland regions of central and northern Poland. The calculated cross–correlation method largely failed to reveal inertia of the analysed characteristic specific river runoff, with no statistically significant correlation being obtained between Hurrell index values and weighted average specific runoff from Poland. Equally, several-year periods with an asynchronous relationship between the NAO and weighted average specific runoff from Poland were to be noted between 1960 and 2010.

Keywords: Oscylacja Północnoatlantycka, charakterystyczne odpływy jednostkowe, Polska

Citation

APA: Stanisławczyk, B. (2017). Wieloletnia dynamika odpływów charakterystycznych z wybranych zlewni Polski w świetle zmian indeksu NAO. Przegląd Geograficzny, 89(3), 413-428. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2017.3.4
MLA: Stanisławczyk, Beata. "Wieloletnia dynamika odpływów charakterystycznych z wybranych zlewni Polski w świetle zmian indeksu NAO". Przegląd Geograficzny, vol. 89, no. 3, 2017, pp. 413-428. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2017.3.4
Chicago: Stanisławczyk, Beata. "Wieloletnia dynamika odpływów charakterystycznych z wybranych zlewni Polski w świetle zmian indeksu NAO". Przegląd Geograficzny 89, no. 3 (2017): 413-428. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2017.3.4
Harvard: Stanisławczyk, B. 2017. "Wieloletnia dynamika odpływów charakterystycznych z wybranych zlewni Polski w świetle zmian indeksu NAO". Przegląd Geograficzny, vol. 89, no. 3, pp. 413-428. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2017.3.4