Marek Górnik

Abstract The paper presents analysis of long-term changes in average, maximum and minimum annual and semi-annual and monthly average river runoff of the Vistula (Tczew and Zawichost water level gauges) and Bug (Wyszków water level gauges) in the years 1951–2015. The data came from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute (IMGW-PIB). Using the Mann-Kendall test and the directional coefficient β expressed by the Theil-Sen estimator, a multi-temporal trend analysis was carried out, which allowed to determine the direction, significance and strength of flow trends and indicate the periods in which the direction of trends reversed. A multi-temporal trend analysis allows for the calculation of periods covering every possible combination of the beginning and end year. The minimum duration of the calculation period is 20 years. The changes observed in average river runoff were fluctuating in nature and in large part were statistically insignificant. In the case of maximum flows the decreasing tendencies were prevalent, while in the case of minimal flows increasing tendencies were. On the Bug, much of the analyzed trends were statistically significant. In the surveyed for many years, the trend changed twice, around 1965 and 1980.

Keywords: hydrologia, przepływy rzek, test Manna-Kendalla, wielowariantowa analiza trendów, dorzecze Wisły, zlewisko Morza Bałtyckiego

Citation

APA: Górnik, M. (2018). Wieloletnie zmiany przepływów Wisły i Bugu (1951–2015). Przegląd Geograficzny, 90(3), 479-494. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2018.3.4
MLA: Górnik, Marek. "Wieloletnie zmiany przepływów Wisły i Bugu (1951–2015)". Przegląd Geograficzny, vol. 90, no. 3, 2018, pp. 479-494. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2018.3.4
Chicago: Górnik, Marek. "Wieloletnie zmiany przepływów Wisły i Bugu (1951–2015)". Przegląd Geograficzny 90, no. 3 (2018): 479-494. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2018.3.4
Harvard: Górnik, M. 2018. "Wieloletnie zmiany przepływów Wisły i Bugu (1951–2015)". Przegląd Geograficzny, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 479-494. https://doi.org/10.7163/PrzG.2018.3.4